STOP and GO signals for building and construction
Australian Construction Industry Forum (ACIF) forecasts show serious shortfalls or oversupply are expected for key building assets - including classrooms, hospital beds, office, retail and industrial space plus housing - in communities around Australia.
ACIF’s Demand Driven Forecasts 2014 start with population changes expected in 21 locales around Australia, determine the future needs of these communities, compared to the current and planned supply of each asset type. Some regions will have be struggling to meet the needs of the community, yet other regions will see an oversupply of assets as the projected population will have a reduced need for some building types.
“Peering into the looking glass of the population we expect in 21 regions, we can see how their needs are set to change,” said Peter Barda, Executive Director of the Australian Construction Industry Forum, publisher of the Demand Driven Forecasts.
Two mechanisms are provided in the Demand Driven Forecasts to communicate the balance of supply and demand in a region including the following:
- Demand and supply chart: this shows the projected demand and supply of the infrastructure in their respective units (i.e. hospital bed numbers, classroom numbers, number of dwellings and so on). This chart is useful for understanding the general trend of the demand-side and supply-side of infrastructure needs of a region. This provides the reader some sense of the absolute amount of infrastructure construction needs in each region in comparable physical units.
- Traffic light chart: this shows where the construction opportunities are likely to be. Through a simplified visual representation of a region’s infrastructure market using green lights for ‘go’ (i.e. excess demand, opportunities exists) and red lights for ‘stop’ (excess supply, limited opportunity), the chart can be used to quickly identify the overall market environment for each infrastructure type in each of the 21 DDF regions. The traffic light charts are ‘normalised’ using average values for large capital cities 1 as one subset, and for the remaining cities as another subset. This means that the number of lights for a region may be broadly compared against another region within the same subset. Comparisons between regions not in the same subset are not valid (because the scale of construction activity is so vastly different each coloured “light” stands for very different amounts).
“These Forecasts rely upon the published building and construction plans of governments. In some cases the Demand Driven Forecasts highlight where plans have not been released – or possibly made – and the potential gaps if action isn’t taken.”
Story and image supplied by Australian Construction Industry Forum.